Nevada gaming cash backs Lombardo as betting markets favour Ford
Casino operators and gaming executives have poured millions into incumbent Joe Lombardo's campaign, even as prediction markets now favour Democratic challenger Aaron Ford ahead of Tuesday's vote.
Nevada voters go to the polls on Tuesday to choose between Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic attorney general Aaron Ford, a race the state's gaming industry is watching closely given Nevada's status as the largest commercial casino market in the US, according to iGaming Business.
Prediction markets have moved sharply in Ford's favour since the start of October. Both Kalshi and Polymarket, which had Lombardo ahead through August and September, now put Ford's odds above 75%, iGaming Business reported.
Conventional polling tells a tighter story. MS NOW had Ford leading Lombardo 45% to 44% as of Friday, while a Noble Predictive Insights poll published on 6 October gave Lombardo a 42%-40% edge. iGaming Business noted that both polling and prediction markets have misfired before, pointing to Donald Trump's 2024 win and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election in Brazil as recent examples neither method anticipated.
Nevada has elected Republican governors for all but four years since 1998, a run interrupted only by Democrat Steve Sisolak, whose 2018 win preceded the Covid-19 pandemic and a 78-day closure of state casinos in 2020. Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, unseated Sisolak in 2022.
Campaign finance records filed with the Nevada Secretary of State's Office show Lombardo well ahead on fundraising, taking in $6.1 million between 1 January and 30 September against $4.9 million for Ford, with Lombardo's campaign spending $12.4 million to Ford's $5.2 million over the same period.
The gap widens further in outside spending. Nevada Way PAC, which backs Lombardo, has collected more than $10 million, according to Transparency USA figures cited by iGaming Business. Contributors include $3 million from Station Casinos, $1 million each from Station chairman Frank Fertitta and vice chairman Lorenzo Fertitta, and $1 million from Las Vegas Sands, alongside six-figure sums from Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, Wynn Resorts, MGM Resorts and the Venetian Las Vegas.
Lombardo has secured Trump's endorsement and campaigned alongside him in Las Vegas in August, though he has since kept some distance from the president amid rising costs, including Nevada's third-highest state average for petrol prices, as tracked by AAA.
Ford has instead drawn institutional backing from Culinary Union Local 226, which endorsed him in September. He has sided with the union's push to organise Station's Red Rock Casino after the US Supreme Court declined to hear Station's appeal, and said in a Tuesday statement that he was standing in solidarity with Red Rock workers.
Pro-Ford political committees have raised smaller but notable sums. A More Affordable Nevada has taken in $11 million, including $400,000 from Illinois Governor Jay Pritzker, while the Forward Nevada PAC's roughly $3 million includes contributions from the AFSCME, the SEIU and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers.
On regulatory matters, Ford's office has driven Nevada's campaign against prediction market platforms, winning an August ruling from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals that upheld the state's ban on sports, entertainment and election-related event contracts.
iGaming Business noted that while gaming money has overwhelmingly favoured Lombardo, a Ford win would keep in place the legal posture that casino operators and regulators have credited with shielding the state's betting industry from prediction markets they regard as a direct competitive threat.