Kalshi reports 500% growth in weather and climate prediction bets
US prediction market Kalshi says wagers on weather and climate events have surged to a $1.1bn market, prompting a tie-up with the Weather Company.
Online prediction markets in the United States are expanding into weather and climate events as a new source of growth, according to Guardian gambling reporting by Oliver Milman.
Kalshi and Polymarket, both known for political and sports wagering alongside crypto-linked markets, are now offering products tied to questions such as how hot a city will get, how fast ice sheets and coral reefs are deteriorating, and how many costly climate disasters will occur in a given year.
Kalshi told the Guardian that wagers on weather and climate had grown by 500% over the past year, pushing the value of that segment of its market to $1.1bn.
To bolster the credibility of these markets, Kalshi has struck a partnership with the Weather Company, which owns the Weather Channel, according to the report.
The move places established forecasting expertise alongside a betting product built on the same underlying events, a pairing the Guardian's reporting says has raised questions about exactly what customers are wagering on when they stake money on the trajectory of the climate crisis.
The growth comes as prediction markets more broadly have pushed into territory well beyond their original focus on elections and sport, with operators seeking new categories of everyday, recurring events that can be turned into tradeable contracts.
Weather and climate outcomes offer frequent, verifiable data points, which analysts of the sector have noted makes them well suited to the short-dated contract structure that platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket use for other markets.
The Guardian's report frames the development within wider coverage of the escalating physical toll of the climate crisis, including separate findings on the scale of species and ecosystem disruption and warnings over the human cost of extreme weather events.
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has set out further public detail, per the report, on how far the expansion into climate-linked contracts is expected to go beyond the current weather and disaster-related offerings.