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Regulation

Curtis presses Senate to probe Trump Jr over Kalshi, Polymarket links

Republican senator John Curtis wants the Judiciary Committee to examine whether Donald Trump Jr's advisory roles at prediction market platforms risk favourable treatment from federal regulators.

Donald Trump Jr pictured at a public event, referenced in prediction markets ethics inquiry
AI-generated illustration

Senator John Curtis (R-Utah) has asked the Senate Judiciary Committee to investigate whether relationships tied to the presidential family have delivered private financial benefit or preferential access, naming Donald Trump Jr's connections to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket as a specific concern.

In a letter dated 21 September to committee chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and ranking member Dick Durbin (D-Illinois), Curtis called for subpoenas of both Trump Jr and Hunter Biden covering past business dealings, foreign relationships and gifts received, according to SBC Americas. Senators John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) have said they back the request.

Curtis presented the move as a bipartisan test of whether Congress applies equal scrutiny to relatives of presidents from both parties.

For an industry still fighting to establish a stable federal regulatory footing, the letter adds a fresh political complication. Curtis wrote that Trump Jr's ties extend to "significant financial and advisory ties to prediction market platforms that depend on favorable federal regulatory decisions being considered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission", and said this raises the question of "whether such relationships can create actual or perceived expectations of favorable treatment".

Trump Jr holds a paid advisory position at Kalshi and received equity when he joined. At Polymarket he also advises the company and is a partner at 1789 Capital, which put $300m into a recent Polymarket funding round and is now among the platform's largest equity holders, per SBC Americas.

Those roles carry more weight as prediction markets push further into sports contracts, elections and economic data products that have traditionally sat under gambling regulation. Kalshi and rival platforms maintain that event contracts on federally regulated exchanges are derivatives overseen by the CFTC rather than gambling products subject to state law.

A spokesman for Trump Jr, Andrew Surabian, has said he does not trade on the platforms, does not liaise with federal officials on their behalf, and provides only marketing guidance. Surabian has also argued Trump Jr remains a private citizen entitled to continue outside business interests despite his father's office.

The Trump family's prediction market footprint extends beyond Trump Jr. Trump Media & Technology Group announced plans last year for a crypto-based product called Truth Predict, intended to let Truth Social users trade contracts on elections, sports and economic data through a tie-up with Crypto.com. That broader platform has not materialised, with Trump Media instead pursuing a marketing arrangement with Crypto.com.

Curtis's letter arrives as his own state presses a hard line against sports event contracts. Utah Governor Spencer Cox has said he intends to challenge both Kalshi and the CFTC, prompting Kalshi to sue the state. Utah, which broadly bans gambling, argues Kalshi's sports markets amount to illegal wagering, while Kalshi maintains federal law under the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state enforcement.

The Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals this month denied Kalshi's request for an emergency injunction, leaving Utah free to enforce its gambling statutes while the underlying appeal continues.

That ruling sits alongside a wider split in federal court. The Third Circuit has backed Kalshi's preemption argument in its dispute with New Jersey, while the Ninth Circuit has gone the other way in cases involving Nevada and California tribal lands, concluding that sports event contracts function as gambling products rather than protected swaps. New Jersey has petitioned the US Supreme Court to resolve the conflict, with Robinhood and Crypto.com filing similar requests.

  • kalshi
  • polymarket
  • cftc
  • donald trump jr
  • utah
  • prediction markets