UKGC research links illegal gambling sites to higher problem rates
Gambling Commission analysis of UK banking data finds users of unlicensed gambling sites are far more likely to show signs of problem gambling than licensed customers, though it stops short of claiming causation.
New research published by the UK Gambling Commission found that problem gambling indicators were more than seven times as common among people using illegal gambling websites in Britain as among those sticking to licensed operators.
The regulator found that 45% of players identified as using illegal gambling sites reached a score of eight or higher on the Problem Gambling Severity Index, the threshold for the highest risk category. Among licensed customers, the figure was 6%.
A further 17% of illegal site users scored between three and seven on the index, against 9% of those gambling only with licensed operators. The UKGC said the data was drawn from banking transactions recorded between July 2018 and July 2026.
The regulator was careful to note that the findings do not establish whether using illegal sites actually causes greater gambling harm, only that the two are correlated.
The research also examined whether people who gambled illegally stopped using licensed operators as a result. The Gambling Commission said it found little evidence of that happening.
Among individuals with repeated illegal gambling transactions, 91% also gambled with licensed companies. Of the 122 people identified with at least two detected illegal transactions, the average number of monthly licensed gambling transactions barely changed after their first illegal one, moving from 24.8 in the preceding month to 23.7 in the following month.
“Illegal gambling is embedded within existing gambling behavior rather than triggering a sustained shift away from the licensed market,” the report concluded, according to Casino.org News.
The study drew on 157.2 million banking transactions from roughly 38,000 individuals, using financial data supplied by YouGov. From that dataset, the UKGC identified 3,426 transactions it believed involved illegal operators, made by 179 individuals.
Identifying those payments was not straightforward. An initial attempt to match known illegal operator names directly against transaction descriptions failed, which the regulator attributed to illegal operators rarely identifying themselves in payment information. Researchers instead relied on known transaction descriptions and merchant names to flag suspected illegal gambling payments.
The methodology also could not capture cryptocurrency transactions, a gap the UKGC acknowledged limited its ability to size the illegal market overall. As a result, the regulator said the research could not be used to estimate how large illegal gambling activity is in Britain.
Other industry bodies have been more willing to put figures on the scale of the problem. The Betting and Gaming Council warned in August that black market betting on the Premier League in the UK could reach £1 billion by the 2027/28 season, according to Casino.org News.
The UKGC's findings add to a body of evidence regulators and licensed operators have used to argue that unlicensed gambling sites pose a distinct risk to consumers, even as the regulator itself is cautious about drawing firm conclusions on causation or market size from the available banking data.