Prediction markets now take 15% of US NFL betting handle
H2 data discussed on iGaming Business's Right to the Source podcast shows prediction markets eating into regulated sportsbook handle as legal fight with the CFTC heads toward the Supreme Court.
Prediction markets have grown from roughly 5% to around 15% of combined NFL betting handle in regulated US states over the past six months, according to unreleased data from H2 Gambling Capital discussed on the latest episode of iGaming Business's Right to the Source podcast.
Hosts Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin, returning after a recent interview with Nigel Eccles, used the figures to assess how much of a drag prediction markets are putting on traditional sportsbook growth this NFL season.
Birkin said overall NFL sportsbook handle is close to flat for the year, up 0.4% across reporting states but down 1% once Florida is included. He attributed that outcome to around 4% underlying organic growth being offset by a 4-5% headwind from prediction markets.
The rise in prediction markets' share of the pie, Birkin said, was driven largely by aggressive marketing spend around the football World Cup and through August. The podcast also flagged one unnamed state, described only as having a warmer climate, as facing the sharpest impact from the shift.
The discussion turned to the unresolved legal status of prediction markets in the US, where a dispute between individual states and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over jurisdiction is expected by many industry figures Birkin spoke to on a recent US trip to reach the Supreme Court around 2027-28.
That timeline is already being tested. As reported by Matt Rybaltowski, the NFL has filed an amicus brief asking the Supreme Court to review Flaherty vs KalshiEx, LLC, a case central to the question of whether event-based prediction contracts fall under federal commodities law or state gambling regulation.
The episode closed with a debate on whether consolidation in the betting and gaming sector is actually creating value for shareholders. Harrison and Birkin weighed recent deals, including the earlier merger of Banijay and Tipico, against Flutter Entertainment's acquisition record.
Birkin argued that no one has demonstrated Flutter's acquisitions have generated value beyond the performance of FanDuel itself, its US business.
The pair then turned to Lottomatica's acquisition of Cirsa, weighing where that deal sits against the wider pattern of M&A activity across the industry, though the podcast stopped short of a definitive verdict on the episode summary.