DraftKings boss says prediction markets have barely begun to scale
Jason Robins tells EGR at SBC Lisbon that prediction markets are not denting the sportsbook, as DraftKings chases Kalshi and Polymarket in the nascent category.
DraftKings co-founder and chief executive Jason Robins has told EGR that the operator is "just scratching the surface" with its prediction markets business, despite a turbulent 12 months for the company's share price.
Speaking to EGR at SBC Lisbon, Robins pointed to a 15% year-on-year rise in NFL handle for the DraftKings sportsbook, a figure he had previously cited at a Wells Fargo investor event, as evidence that prediction markets are not cannibalising the core betting product.
"We've continued to say, even though it seems like not everybody is believing us, that prediction markets are not having any discernible impact on the business," Robins said, attributing the growth instead to wider industry expansion and DraftKings' own competitive performance.
On market structure, Robins pushed back on the suggestion that DraftKings and FanDuel between them hold 75% to 80% of the US online sports betting market, telling EGR the figure is "less than that". He named BetMGM, Fanatics and Caesars as the operator's main sportsbook rivals, depending on the state.
Robins acknowledged the regulatory landscape many assumed protected incumbent operators is now being tested. "I think you're seeing right now that there's all sorts of disruption happening," he said, adding that DraftKings must keep innovating given "there is always going to be something" challenging the business.
On predictions specifically, Robins said the product launched in December last year was "not extremely well developed yet" at that point, but that the goal heading into NFL season was to build the best sports offering in the industry. He told EGR that DraftKings now has the most markets and the best product in NFL, college football and Major League Baseball, built over eight to nine months of work.
He named Kalshi and Polymarket as the chief rivals in prediction markets, with Kalshi described as "the biggest for sure". Robins said the next phase of development would focus on building a product that is "clearly head and shoulders better than anything else out there" within the coming year.
Robins drew a parallel with DraftKings' earlier history, recalling that the company ranked around 25th or 30th in daily fantasy sports before becoming the category leader, and sat in the teens by sports betting market share roughly four-and-a-half years ago before rising to the mid-30s. He credited that trajectory to what he called a consistent focus on customer experience and product, underpinned by marketing.
Robins also addressed the pending US Supreme Court question over sports event contracts, telling EGR that DraftKings is positioned to succeed whether or not the contracts are struck down, though he noted the difficulty of building a core sportsbook business while simultaneously capitalising on prediction markets given overlapping customers and tools.