Leadstar Media warns Finland's affiliate ban could favour black market
Ahead of Veikkaus's monopoly ending in 2027, Leadstar Media's Jacob Ljunggren tells SBC News that barring affiliates from promoting licensed Finnish operators risks pushing players towards unregulated sites.
Finland's gambling monopoly, long held by state operator Veikkaus, is due to end in 2027 as the country opens its online betting and gaming market to competition.
More than 50 companies have registered interest in a Finnish licence, and 18 had already secured clearance from the National Police Board at the time of writing, according to SBC News.
One part of the industry shut out of the new regime is affiliate marketing. Under Finland's gambling laws, affiliates will not be permitted to promote licensed betting sites or online casinos, a restriction intended to protect players.
Jacob Ljunggren, Product Director at Leadstar Media, which operates affiliate sites including Oddsbonusar.se and Casinodealen.se, told SBC News the rule could have the opposite effect to the one intended.
Ljunggren said Finnish players already have established habits and relationships with brands that operated in the market before regulation, meaning newly licensed operators face a challenge in persuading them to switch. He said communicating the safety of a licensed option, rather than local payment methods alone, would matter more given the restrictions on marketing and welcome bonuses.
On the affiliate ban specifically, Ljunggren argued that regulators' stated goal of channelling players into the licensed system is undermined by stopping affiliates from directing them there. He said affiliates help players discover licensed operators they might not otherwise know about, particularly when a market opens and dozens of new brands appear at once.
He warned that players will keep seeking comparisons and recommendations regardless of the rule, but that affiliates such as Leadstar Media who want to support the regulated market will be barred from providing them. That, he said, leaves the field open to those willing to promote unlicensed operators instead.
Ljunggren likened the situation to a "six-point game" in football: allowing affiliates lets a market both bring players into the regulated system and draw them away from unregulated operators, whereas banning affiliates risks losing on both counts.
Asked how operators can differentiate themselves under the advertising restrictions, Ljunggren pointed to Sweden as a comparable market in terms of regulation and gambling culture, though one that permits both affiliate marketing and welcome bonuses, unlike Finland. He said Swedish operators have increasingly chosen not to offer bonuses even where allowed, focusing instead on simpler signup processes, payment methods and overall user experience.
He expects a similar pattern in Finland, where he said differentiation will need to come from product and service quality rather than acquisition incentives, since many operators will offer broadly similar slots and betting markets.
On whether unlicensed operators could continue to dominate after the market opens, Ljunggren said channelisation has been a challenge in several regulated European markets, even if the scale of the problem is debated. He said the regulated market's success depends on operators offering competitive products and on players understanding the protection and safety benefits of choosing licensed sites.