DraftKings sees surge in Bears Super Bowl futures bets
DraftKings director Johnny Avello tells Casino.org that Chicago's win over Seattle and the Jeffery Simmons trade have driven a wave of Super Bowl futures betting on the Bears.
The Chicago Bears' emergence as a genuine Super Bowl contender is the standout betting story of the NFL season's first half, according to Johnny Avello, director of sports operations at DraftKings, speaking to Casino.org.
Chicago beat the defending champion Seattle Seahawks 34-17 on 2 November, improving to 6-2. DraftKings now prices the Bears at +750 to win the Super Bowl, behind only the San Francisco 49ers (+550) and Buffalo Bills (+600).
The odds shift follows a trade completed on 29 October, four days before the Seattle win, in which Chicago acquired All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons from the Tennessee Titans for two first-round picks (2027 and 2028) and a 2027 fourth-round pick. The deal came ahead of the NFL's 10 November trade deadline.
Avello said the Bears' Super Bowl price had moved from +3000 earlier in the season to +1400, then to +1200 after the Simmons trade was announced, before the latest shortening to +750.
"We took quite a bit of money on the Bears to win the Super Bowl over the past week or so, mostly over the last couple days because of their showing," Avello told Casino.org.
He said Chicago's large national following means the team consistently draws recreational wagers even in weaker seasons, and that quarterback Caleb Williams's development under offense-minded head coach Ben Johnson has made the Bears a team sportsbooks must take seriously.
Avello pointed more broadly to growing parity across the league as the defining trend of the first eight weeks. "There has been a lot of underdogs, big underdogs, win games outright," he said. "There's just a lot of parity in the league now. You can tell by any given week somebody can bite somebody."
He cited Cincinnati's 43-36 overtime win over Tennessee as an example of the unpredictability bookmakers have had to absorb this season.
Despite the surprises, Avello said DraftKings is rarely caught flat-footed, since the book continually updates power ratings to account for injuries, home-field factors and shifting form. "I don't think anything catches us off guard. They might for a week or so, but we catch up real fast because we're constantly monitoring all teams and changing teams' power ratings when needed," he said.
Among other midseason surprises, Avello flagged the Cleveland Browns' five wins as exceeding preseason expectations, while describing the Los Angeles Rams (4-4) as disappointing and the winless Los Angeles Chargers (0-7) as a disaster. He also noted the New York Giants (4-2-1) leading the NFC East despite significant injuries, including at quarterback.
Avello distinguished between recreational bettors, who tend to back favourites through moneylines, spreads, parlays and same-game parlays, and sharper players who hunt for value on underdogs by weighing injuries, motivation and scheduling spots. "Those guys are constantly looking for some value on the dog side," he said.
Looking to the second half, Avello described the Dallas Cowboys as frustratingly inconsistent and suggested the 6-2 Denver Broncos may be somewhat overvalued given their schedule. He said the Kansas City Chiefs remain dangerous despite setbacks, and praised the Las Vegas Raiders' form with Kirk Cousins helping develop rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
He also raised concerns about the Buffalo Bills, noting that despite Josh Allen's quality at quarterback, the team has continued to struggle to produce defensive stops in the closing stages of games.