IG Group plots UK prediction markets return after 16-year gap

IG Group is preparing to re-enter the UK betting space, confirming plans for a prediction markets launch that will begin in late Q4 2026, 16 years after it wound down its previous sports betting venture.

The initial phase will offer professional investors 24/5 tax-free trading on financial assets. A wider consumer launch is planned for early 2027, adding non-financial categories such as sports, entertainment and politics to the predictions portfolio.

The firm has applied for a licence with the UK Gambling Commission to support the retail expansion, according to SBC News. IG Group previously operated in sports betting through Extrabet, a unit it closed in 2011 when it sold most of its customer list to betting exchange Spreadex.

The new products will sit within IG Consumer, which has spent 18 months building a single international platform combining CFDs, spread betting, share dealing, crypto and predictions.

IG Consumer chief executive Michael Healy said the business had identified demand among UK customers. "We see strong appetite for this product in the UK. Customers find it appealing and traffic to prediction market platforms is growing," he said.

Healy acknowledged the UK market presents distinct regulatory hurdles. "But the UK is different. Regulation is split between two regulators and retail customers cannot trade binary options. Despite this complexity, we have found a route to market with a regulated product that addresses this growing customer demand," he said.

The move follows IG Group's agreement in principle to acquire Underdog, a US-focused daily fantasy sports and predictions operator, for $1.1bn. Management gave no indication that daily fantasy sports would be introduced in the UK.

Over 60% of Underdog's active users are under 30, compared with an average customer age of 42 across IG Group's existing business, positioning predictions as a route to a younger audience. The unified platform is set to extend across IG Consumer's European and Asia-Pacific markets through 2027, with a UK marketing campaign including Sky Sports due next month.

IG Group will be entering a market long dominated by established gambling operators, including Flutter and Entain's core brands alongside William Hill, bet365 and Betfred. IG Group chief executive Breon Corcoran said the competitive picture would only become clear after launch.

"But what I think you're really competing for is space in the consumer's mind," Corcoran said. "So it's competing within that space really as opposed to saying it's competitor X or competitor Y and the economics look like Z - it's much more specific around a consumer mindset."

SBC News noted that exchange gross gambling yield in the UK has nearly halved over the past decade, a trend that could complicate predictions' prospects. Smarkets chief executive Jason Trost, whose exchange has already redesigned its interface along the lines of US prediction platforms, told SBC News the two product types are "not apples and oranges - they're both apples".

Tax policy adds further uncertainty. General Betting Duty is due to rise from 15% to 25% in April 2027, a change that will apply to the predictions offering. IG Group is not currently planning a move into iGaming, meaning it looks set to avoid the already-implemented doubling of Remote Gaming Duty to 40%.