Bookmaker prices Budget odds on doubling of Machine Games Duty

AK Bets, a bookmaker well known in UK and Ireland horse racing circles, has launched a market on its platform asking punters to price the outcome of next week's Autumn Budget decision on Machine Games Duty (MGD).

The firm revealed the market on its X account on Sunday night, initially pricing a rise to 40% at 1/2. By the time SBC News reported on it, that had drifted to 8/13, with the rate staying at 20% priced at 2/1 — the same odds offered on any increase landing between 21% and 39%.

MGD currently applies at 20% to Category B gaming machines found in betting shops, and speculation has built in recent days that the Treasury could double it to 40% in the Budget.

That speculation intensified after a letter signed by 90 Labour backbench MPs, calling for the duty to rise while sparing traditional fruit machines in pubs, was made public on Friday by its author, Alex Ballinger, the Labour MP for Halesowen.

The Betting and Gaming Council hit back following the letter's publication. Chief executive Grainne Hurst said MPs were "deeply misguided" in believing that raising taxes on the gambling industry would protect communities and high streets, according to SBC News.

Ballinger has since taken the argument to mainstream media, telling ITV News that the push for higher duty reflects "MPs recognising the harm that we're seeing in our communities".

AK Bets founder Anthony Kaminskas told SBC News the market was "generally playful" but said the eventual rate would have "a monumental effect on the viability of betting shops and maybe even horse racing itself".

Kaminskas said the firm had built in a wide margin on the market, calling it "a sign of things to come in the regulated gambling space as firms try to absorb these crushing tax rises", and noted that 40% remained the heaviest-backed outcome.

He argued that any increase in taxation would chiefly benefit unlicensed operators. "The only winners to increased taxation are the black market," he said, adding that he did not "have enough fingers on both hands to count the losers".

SBC News noted that a doubling of MGD would likely force shop closures, pushing some machine players toward surviving regulated venues while driving others toward unregulated black market slots, where consumer protections do not apply.

Any further increase would follow two other tax measures announced over the past year that SBC News said have already contributed to around 2,000 job losses across the sector.