Ballon d'Or Owner Probes Leak After Polymarket Betting Surge

Groupe Amaury, the French media group that owns France Football and stages the Ballon d'Or, said on 31 October it was examining whether confidential voting results had been leaked before the award's 26 October ceremony in London.

The company's statement, given to the newspaper Le Parisien, followed reporting by the French financial outlet Upside, which identified twelve Polymarket accounts that collectively staked around $264,000 on the precise order of the top five finishers.

Harry Kane, of Bayern Munich, became the first Englishman in 25 years to win the men's Ballon d'Or. Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi completed the top five in the order the accounts had backed.

Groupe Amaury told Le Parisien it was treating the claims of a leak and potentially fraudulent bets seriously, and that it was working to establish the facts and whether any individual was responsible. The Guardian reported that French police have also been notified.

Upside first raised concerns about the betting activity on 23 October, three days before the results were made public. According to its reporting, the accounts in question were opened between 1 and 20 October, shortly after voting had closed.

Seven of the twelve accounts had placed no other bets on the platform, and six began trading within fifteen minutes of being created, Upside found. All predicted the same finishing order, though not every account wagered on all five positions. One account, under the name kraben006, placed separate bets on each of the five places.

Upside's analysis of blockchain transactions put total deposits across the accounts at roughly $309,000, with around $500,000 later withdrawn. The outlet reported that the first withdrawal came just 19 minutes after the winners were announced.

Upside said it could link several of the accounts to one another through transaction records, but could not confirm that all twelve belonged to a single person. A wallet tied to kraben006 was also reportedly connected to the French financial app Deblock, whose records verifying customer identity could potentially help investigators trace who was behind it.

A jury of international journalists decides the Ballon d'Or, and the outcome is not supposed to become public before the ceremony takes place. Pascal Ferré, a former editor of France Football, has said that only a small number of people would normally know the winner in advance.

The accuracy and timing of the bets raise the possibility that someone had advance knowledge of the rankings, but Casino.org noted that no leak has been confirmed and the identities of those behind the accounts remain unknown. Correct predictions alone do not establish wrongdoing.