Nevis launches dedicated licensing regime for prediction markets

The Nevis Online Gaming Authority (NOGA) has opened a new licensing category specifically for prediction markets, extending its existing iGaming framework to cover the emerging sector.

NOGA, which oversees gambling licensing for Nevis, a federal state within the Caribbean nation of Saint Kitts and Nevis, already issues B2B and B2C licences for international operators while barring local residents from participating in iGaming. The new Nevis Prediction Market License will sit alongside those existing categories.

The licence is open to both consumer-facing platforms and the technology and service providers that support them, according to SBC News. Markets covered by the framework range across sporting outcomes, economic and financial indicators, elections and political contests, entertainment, climate and weather events, and movements in crypto and other digital assets.

NOGA said the licence will apply its existing standards on corporate due diligence, customer safety and anti-money laundering compliance, with the stated aim of protecting market integrity and guarding against manipulation.

Nuri Katz, chief executive of NOGA, said regulatory approaches needed to reflect how prediction platforms operate and the risks tied to their activities. He said the framework was designed to give businesses entering the sector greater clarity while keeping "market integrity and participant protection" central to the licensing process.

NOGA's move follows Gibraltar, which became the first jurisdiction worldwide to introduce a dedicated prediction markets framework earlier in 2026. NOGA's position is that prediction markets are distinct from conventional online gambling products, a characterisation that remains contested across multiple markets.

In the United States, prediction markets operate under federal oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which treats products from operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket as distinct from gambling. That classification is increasingly being tested at state level: Utah has filed criminal charges against Kalshi, following Arizona in accusing the operator of running an illegal gambling operation.

The picture in Europe is similarly split. Gibraltar has built a licensing route for the sector, while SBC News reports that 11 other EU member states have moved to restrict or drop prediction markets altogether.

Against that backdrop, smaller jurisdictions such as Nevis, and self-governing bodies including Canada's Tobique First Nation, are positioning themselves as licensing hubs for prediction market operators, reflecting the comparatively limited domestic political resistance such regions face on the issue.