Macquarie predicts prediction market volume will near $187bn in 2026
Analyst Chad Beynon forecasts a near-750% jump in US prediction market taker volume next year, with Kalshi holding a dominant lead over DraftKings and FanDuel.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon has forecast that taker volume across US prediction markets will reach $186.8bn (£141.09bn) in 2026, up from an estimated $22bn this year, according to EGR.
That projection represents close to a 750% rise year on year, reflecting what Beynon described as adoption that has "continued to exceed expectations" since July as sports event contracts spread across platforms including Kalshi, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Novig.
September alone produced $20.1bn in prediction market volume across the US, a 21.1% rise on August driven by the return of the NFL season, Beynon's figures show.
Sports event contracts accounted for $17bn of that total, which EGR notes was higher than the $15.8bn in handle generated by licensed online sports betting operators over the same month.
Kalshi remained the clear leader with $10.7bn in volume, equivalent to a 63% share of the sports event contract market. DraftKings generated $623m, putting it at roughly 4% share, while FanDuel brought in $436m for about 3%. The remainder of the market totalled $5.2bn.
Beynon pointed out that DraftKings and FanDuel are only permitted to offer sports event contracts in states without legal online sports betting, whereas Kalshi operates across most of the country, meaning their effective share within the markets where they compete is roughly double the headline figure.
DraftKings chief executive Jason Robins has said the business is approaching double-digit market share through DraftKings Predictions, telling EGR the product still has "a lot of runway" for further development.
App download data from the fourth week of the NFL season reinforced Kalshi's position, with 651,804 downloads against 223,056 for Polymarket. DraftKings, combining its sportsbook and prediction market app, took an 11% download share with 184,281, ahead of bet365 on 146,344 and FanDuel on 116,714.
Beynon said DraftKings' and FanDuel's download performance relative to their current volume share suggests both remain "undermonetised participants in the category" that could gain ground as their geographic availability and product awareness expand.
Macquarie expects sports event contracts to remain the main driver of prediction market growth through the rest of 2026, though the analyst flagged the US midterm election cycle as a potential catalyst for a spike in political event trading.
Beynon identified regulatory uncertainty, with a Supreme Court challenge to the sector widely anticipated within the next few years, as "the single largest risk to adoption and long-term prediction market potential."
That pressure is already visible at state level. The Ohio Casino Control Commission last week issued ten cease-and-desist orders against prediction market operators, including Polymarket, Robinhood, Novig, Coinbase, Underdog and ProphetX.
Investor interest has continued regardless. EGR reported in September that Kalshi was in advanced talks to raise up to $1bn at a $40bn valuation, while Novig is reportedly pursuing a funding round that would value the company at $2bn.