IG Group boss says Supreme Court ruling on prediction markets nearing
Breon Corcoran told investors a conflicting appeals court split is accelerating a Supreme Court decision on the legality of US sports prediction markets.
IG Group chief executive Breon Corcoran has told investors that a US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of sports prediction markets looks likely to arrive earlier than the trading firm had expected, according to EGR.
Corcoran was speaking during an IG Group investor update following the company's acquisition of DFS and prediction market operator Underdog, announced in July in a deal worth up to $1.3bn (£960m).
He said a recent split between US appeals courts would speed up the path to a definitive Supreme Court judgment. "One of the things that has changed since then is the split court decision, which looks like it will be an accelerant to getting a US Supreme Court judgment," Corcoran said. "End state is probably coming sooner than we might have anticipated. I think that is a good thing."
In August, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals backed Nevada in its dispute with Kalshi, ruling that the federal Commodity Exchange Act does not stop states regulating sports event contracts. That decision sits at odds with an April ruling from the Third Circuit, which found that New Jersey lacked the authority to intervene in sports event contracts offered in the state. New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport has since asked the Supreme Court to settle the matter.
Corcoran said IG Group would remain well placed regardless of how the court rules, pointing to a customer base of around five million depositing users, typically men aged 20 to 40 who also trade other asset classes. His comments echo those made last month by DraftKings chief executive Jason Robins.
The remarks came alongside an IG Group trading update showing group revenue fell 14% to £240m in the three months to 30 September 2026. Underdog's revenue over the same period rose by more than 100% year on year to roughly $105m, with handle per customer up 165%, average deposits per customer up 109% and monthly active users up 13%. Bosses pointed to the World Cup falling within the reporting period as a significant factor.
Underdog co-founder Jeremy Levine set out contingency plans should the Supreme Court hand authority over sports event contracts back to individual states. "If the Supreme Court does defer authority back to the states, we'll shift predominantly all of our sports flow back to fantasy sports and the DFS regulatory framework," he said.
Levine confirmed Underdog had surrendered licences in seven states after regulators indicated they were uncomfortable with prediction markets. "In six of those seven states, we only offered our Drafts game," he said, adding that the product represented "a very low immaterial piece" of revenue. He said entering regulated online sports betting remained an option the company would evaluate.
Corcoran also addressed competition in the exchange market from rivals including Kalshi and Polymarket, drawing on his earlier experience at Betfair. "Liquidity is very important – liquidity does not necessarily predetermine success, so we think there will be multiple exchanges," he said, adding that he expects customers to express opinions that are filled through a mix of exchanges and market makers rather than a single dominant platform.
The acquisition of Underdog followed the launch of its in-house exchange earlier this year and its purchase of CFTC-regulated designated contract market and derivatives clearing organisation Aristotle Exchange for an undisclosed fee.