HMRC gambling tax receipts complicate UK industry's budget lobbying
Early data on the UK's reformed gambling tax regime shows duty receipts rising rather than falling, undermining a key industry argument ahead of the October budget, according to SBC News.
Provisional figures from HM Revenue and Customs have handed ministers fresh ammunition in the row over UK gambling taxation, days before a budget that could see duty on gaming machines doubled.
Remote Gaming Duty, charged on online gambling but not sports betting, rose from 21% to 40% on 1 April 2026. HMRC's provisional data for April to June shows RGD receipts of £376m, up 22% or £67m on the same period in 2025, according to SBC News.
That total is lower than the £360m collected in the first quarter of 2026, the last period before the higher rate applied. Even so, the year-on-year rise cuts against a central industry claim: that raising duty rates prompts operators to cut odds and marketing, shrinking revenue and ultimately tax take along with it.
SBC News notes it remains early in the new regime, and the full effect of any operator mitigation may not yet be visible. The Netherlands is often held up as the cautionary long-term case, where 2025 duty rises produced only €2m in extra revenue against an expected €108m.
Machine Games Duty is now the focal point. Chancellor John Healey will deliver Burnham's administration's first budget on 28 October, with rumoured plans to double each MGD band: the Type 1 rate from 5% to 10%, the Type 2 standard rate from 20% to 40%, and the higher rate from 25% to 50%.
MGD receipts for the first quarter of 2026 stood at £160m, broadly flat year-on-year, but HMRC's provisional April-to-June figure of £162m is 5% higher than the same period in 2025. With Burnham pursuing a National Care Service and wider infrastructure spending, alongside inflationary pressure and calls to raise defence spending, the Treasury has further incentive to draw on the sector.
The Betting and Gaming Council launched its "Back Our Betting Shops" campaign last week, with JenningsBets founder Greg Knight telling the Sunday Times that an MGD rise could force more than 100 of his shops to close, months after the firm opened its 200th venue. Betfred founder Fred Done has made similar warnings in the same newspaper.
The British Horseracing Authority has echoed that message, pointing to Gambling Commission figures showing betting shop turnover on horse racing reached £2.9bn in 2025/26. The BHA argues a 40% standard MGD rate would close 4,050 shops and cost 28,000 jobs, hitting levy contributions by $24m and media rights payments by £68m, and cutting racing and betting's combined Treasury receipts by 32%.
The BGC has also raised the stakes for casinos, stating that operators have more than £200m of investment planned for 2026/27 and that doubling the standard MGD rate would wipe out over £50m of that spending.
"These are not just investments in casinos," said BGC chief executive Grainne Hurst. "They are investments in Britain's towns and cities. They create skilled jobs, drive footfall for neighbouring businesses and support the restaurants, hotels, bars and attractions that help our high streets and city centres thrive."
Not every lobbying voice sits with the industry. The Social Market Foundation is among those pushing for higher MGD, with former Prime Minister Gordon Brown also cited by SBC News as a supporter of increasing the duty.