Brazil runoff leaves betting ban's fate unresolved until October 25
Neither Flávio Bolsonaro nor Lula da Silva secured a majority in Brazil's first-round vote, leaving the provisional ban on regulated online betting and igaming in limbo ahead of a run-off, EGR reports.
Brazil's presidential contest will go to a second round after neither candidate cleared the 50% threshold needed to win outright in Sunday's first-round vote, according to EGR.
With almost all ballots counted, Flávio Bolsonaro led on 47.03% of the vote against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 45.16%, EGR reported, figures that translate to roughly 56.1 million votes for Bolsonaro against 53.8 million for Lula.
The run-off is scheduled for 25 October and will determine who governs a country where regulated online sports betting and igaming has been thrown into uncertainty by a presidential order.
Lula signed a provisional measure last month banning regulated online sports betting and igaming in Brazil from 6 October, a sector that was itself regulated on 1 January and launched during his current term, EGR noted.
The measure is temporary and requires approval from Congress within 60 days, a window that can be extended by a further 60 days, according to EGR's reporting.
Lula described the industry as a "cancer" that would end up "destroying" Brazil if left unchecked, EGR reported.
Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, criticised the timing and motive behind the ban, calling it "desperate" and "populist, hypocritical and election driven", per EGR's account.
Even so, EGR cautioned that a Bolsonaro victory would not guarantee the provisional measure is reversed, since he has given no firm commitment to scrap it.
EGR reported that Bolsonaro had earlier indicated he would be willing to let online sports betting continue while opposing online casino, and that he supports legalising land-based casinos.
Jair Bolsonaro, who signed the 2018 legislation that originally opened the door to the sector, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence over his role in a failed coup attempt following his 2022 election loss to Lula, EGR noted.
Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to pardon his father if he wins the presidency, according to EGR, while Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle, was elected to the Senate in the same first-round vote.
Following Sunday's result, Bolsonaro said he was "very happy with the real possibility that, three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer by choosing a modern government", as quoted by EGR via AFP.
Lula, for his part, called the outcome "unexpected" but struck a defiant note, telling supporters "I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round" and that "the game is about to start", EGR reported.
On the market impact of the ban, EGR cited forecasts from H2 Gambling Capital suggesting up to BRL30bn, equivalent to roughly £4.3bn, could shift to the illegal betting market once the measure takes effect.
By contrast, Regulus Partners has put the probability at 85% that the ban lasts only a matter of weeks or months, according to EGR's reporting.
Bolsonaro's campaign will be looking to consolidate the broader right-wing vote in the run-off, with EGR noting that Renan Santos of the three-year-old Mission Party took 2.24% in the first round and is expected to see his support move largely to Bolsonaro in the two-way contest.