BetMGM chief expects prediction markets to shrink after court split
Adam Greenblatt told investors he anticipates the addressable market for sports event contracts will narrow as the US Supreme Court weighs whether to hear the dispute between Kalshi and state regulators.
BetMGM chief executive Adam Greenblatt told investors he expects the pool of customers available to prediction markets operators to shrink in the months ahead, as the sector awaits a possible US Supreme Court ruling on sports event contracts.
Speaking on BetMGM's third-quarter earnings call on Tuesday 13 October, Greenblatt repeated his scepticism about the long-term prospects of the fast-growing category led by Kalshi, according to EGR.
BetMGM and Caesars Entertainment have both steered clear of launching prediction markets products in the US, pointing to their existing obligations under state-level and land-based gambling licences. DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics have taken the opposite approach, rolling out event-contract platforms alongside their regulated sports betting and igaming businesses.
Greenblatt said he anticipates further states will move to restrict prediction markets operators, pointing to recent appeals court decisions. The Ninth Circuit Court sided with Nevada in its dispute with Kalshi, upholding the state's right to apply its own regulatory regime to the firm. The Sixth Circuit Court followed in September, ruling that Ohio and Tennessee may also impose regulatory oversight on prediction markets platforms.
Those outcomes sit in contrast to a Third Circuit Court decision backing Kalshi in its separate fight with New Jersey, which has since filed a writ of certiorari. The resulting divide between circuits is widely seen as likely to push the Supreme Court toward taking up the case.
"I am very much looking forward to this whole ambiguity being clarified by the Supreme Court," Greenblatt said, adding that "the overwhelming majority of cases being now determined in favour of states and attorneys general and tribes; we expect that outcome from the Supreme Court."
He argued the central legal question is whether Congress intended for such contracts to be treated this way, predicting that "that will be shown not to be the case." On the market's trajectory, he said: "We should see a progressive reduction of the addressable TAM for prediction markets as we wait for the Supreme Court to decide whether to take the case or not."
The stakes attached to that outcome are considerable. Macquarie has estimated that taker volume across prediction markets could reach $186.8bn (£141bn) in 2026.
On BetMGM's own numbers, Greenblatt reported a 3% rise in online sports betting handle during the third quarter, a figure he described himself as "delighted with."
The update comes amid broader industry debate over whether prediction markets are eating into traditional sports betting volumes. DraftKings chief executive Jason Robins has pushed back on that narrative, pointing to a 15% increase in his company's NFL handle in the early weeks of the season.
Greenblatt framed BetMGM's own growth as evidence of resilience rather than retreat, noting the company had expanded handle "despite both the reduction in marketing indirectly towards online sports betting and the prevalence and growth in investment of prediction markets." He said the company was "really pleased with the shape of continued momentum as well as the resilience of our business."